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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#8851 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 16.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS FROM
BIRMINGHAM SHOW 50-65 KT ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN
WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR...
AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST
TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR BEING JUST A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.

IVAN WILL REMAIN A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 33.1N 87.0W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 17/0600Z 34.5N 85.9W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/1800Z 35.6N 84.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0600Z 36.3N 82.2W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/1800Z 36.3N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1800Z 35.0N 80.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/1800Z...INLAND