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#8917 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 16.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF IVAN HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SURFACE
WINDS REPORTS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN AROUND 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR.
AFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO
BLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

SINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ON IVAN. FUTURE INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 34.3N 86.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 35.2N 85.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.9N 83.1W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1200Z 36.0N 81.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 35.3N 81.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 20/0000Z 34.0N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND