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| #892606 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 19.Jun.2017) TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 The cloud pattern associated with the disturbance hasn`t changed much overall, with a fairly compact cluster of deep convection near the estimated center location. The Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains at 35 kt, and this value will be used for the advisory intensity. The system has well-defined upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle and vertical shear is forecast by the dynamical guidance to remain low for the next day or so. Therefore some intensification is forecast and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone later today. After the system moves into the Caribbean, it should encounter an increasingly hostile environment of strong vertical shear associated with an upper-level trough over the west-central Caribbean. The global models are in good agreement on the system dissipating over the Central Caribbean, and the official intensity forecast is slightly below the model consensus at 48-72 h in deference to the global model predictions. The initial motion continues to be around 280/20 kt. The track forecast philosophy is basically unchanged from the previous advisory package. A well-defined ridge to the north of the disturbance should continue to steer the system westward to west-northwestward at a fast pace. By 48-72 hours, a slightly more westward track is likely while the weakening system moves more with the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus, TVCN. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Observations from the aircraft should determine whether a well-defined center exists, i.e. whether the disturbance has become a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 8.4N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1800Z 9.3N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/0600Z 10.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 11.5N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 12.4N 67.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 13.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
