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#895708 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 PM 17.Jul.2017)

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area
of low pressure located east-southeast of the Windward Islands has
found a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small
area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of
the circulation. The associated convection is not particularly
well organized, but there is a curved band located to the north
of the center and a couple of bursts have formed closer to the
small circulation center this afternoon. Based on these data,
advisories are being initiated on a tropical storm, the fourth of
the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Don is currently within a
low shear environment and over warm water, so some strengthening is
possible tonight and Tuesday. Once the system enters the eastern
Caribbean Sea, strong upper-level westerly winds and strong
low-level easterly flow are likely to cause the small circulation to
open up into a trough. As a result, dissipation is forecast within
72 hours.

Don is moving westward or 275/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast
to move quickly westward within the strong trade-wide flow for the
next few days. The NHC track is along the southern edge of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus


INIT 17/2100Z 11.2N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 11.8N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 12.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 12.2N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown