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#897071 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 31.Jul.2017)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Mesonet observations from the area north and northwest of Lake
Okeechobee indicate that Emily has an elongated surface
circulation. Although some deep convection has redeveloped near
and to the east of the center, Doppler velocity data from the Tampa
and Melbourne WSR-88D radars only show winds of 30-35 kt at an
elevation of about 5000 ft. Therefore, Emily`s maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated to be 25 kt, primarily within the
thunderstorm activity east and southeast of the center.

Emily`s center, as seen on radar, has been moving east-southeastward
for much of the evening. However, it seems to have recently turned
eastward, and the initial motion estimate is 095/8 kt. Emily is
embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that lies off the
southeastern coast of the United States, and the subtropical ridge
to the east should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward soon,
move off the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday, and then
accelerate over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
Although all of the track models agree on this scenario, the GFS is
a notable outlier compared to the other models, showing a slower
solution that leans more to the left. Because the other models are
so tightly clustered, the updated NHC track forecast leans closer
to them and is a little bit faster than the previous forecast.

There is low confidence in how strong Emily will get, or what
exactly it will be, during the next few days. The global models
keep Emily embedded within or near a weak frontal zone while it
moves across the western Atlantic, suggesting that the cyclone`s
center may not move continuously but rather jump and reform from
time to time along the boundary. These models also do not show
Emily restrengthening much, even over the warm ocean, and
phase-space diagrams suggest that the cyclone may become more cold
core during the next few days. On the other hand, the more tropical
models, like SHIPS and HWRF, show a little bit more
re-intensification. Given that vertical shear is forecast to
increase, and that Emily likely isn`t purely tropical to begin
with, the new NHC intensity forecast sides with the global models
just a little bit more than SHIPS and HWRF. Based on this, Emily
is forecast to intensify just a bit and become extratropical in
about 48 hours. The extratropical low is expected to dissipate by
day 5.

The primary threat with Emily continues to be locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida
Keys overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 27.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
12H 01/1200Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 32.1N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 33.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 36.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z 38.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg