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#897816 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 08.Aug.2017)

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

Visible satellite images and surface synoptic data indicate that
the center of the cyclone is nearing the northwest coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The overall cloud pattern remains fairly well
organized, with distinct banding features and well-defined
upper-level outflow. Based on the assumption that only slow
weakening has been occurring, the current intensity is set at 35 kt.
Franklin should begin to strengthen very soon, when its center moves
over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. The dynamical
guidance indicates that north-northeasterly shear will begin to
affect the tropical cyclone when it moves farther west in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which should be an impediment for
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance but close to the intensity model consensus. Given
that it is quite possible that Franklin could become a hurricane by
the time of landfall, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch
for the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.

The motion continues west-northwestward or 290/10 kt. A
mid-tropospheric high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf
coast should cause a generally westward motion over the next couple
of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous
ones, and not far from the latest dynamical model consensus.


INIT 08/2100Z 20.2N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 20.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Pasch