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#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Nate) , Major: 26 (Maria) Florida - Any: 36 (Irma) Major: 36 (Irma)
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#899583 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 25.Aug.2017)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD...TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD...TEXAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY
BE COMPLETE.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG