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#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm
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#900109 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 27.Aug.2017)
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South
Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary.
A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by
a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South
Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to
move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the
North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.
The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become
a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan