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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#900278 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 AM 28.Aug.2017)
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NEARLY STATIONARY AND POORLY ORGANIZED FOR
NOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 80.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the poorly defined circulation associated
with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.0 North,
longitude 80.7 West. The system has been moving little, and a
slow and erratic motion is forecast through this afternoon, followed
by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts later today and move along the North Carolina
coast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday morning
and then become post-tropical by Tuesday night.

Although satellite and radar data indicate that the associated
showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization, the
center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight
increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the upper South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some
flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila