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| #901667 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 06.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Katia is gradually becoming better organized with abundant convection near the center and improving outflow. An average of subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB as well as objective Dvorak T-numbers from CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt, or perhaps a little bit higher. An Air Force plane will check Katia later today, and we will have a better estimate of the structure of the cyclone. Currently, the upper-level wind pattern is not very conducive for strengthening, but most of the global models as well as the SHIPS guidance indicate that the environment will become favorable with weaker shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Katia to become a hurricane before it approaches the coast of the state of Veracruz. Katia is embedded within weak steering currents, and the cyclone will most likely meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two. After that time global models develop a ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and is not very different from the previous NHC track. Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward the coast, a hurricane watch could be required for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz later today. This system is forecast to bring very heavy rains primarily to the state of Veracruz during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 21.7N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 21.4N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.7N 95.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
