|#901743 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 06.Sep.2017)|
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
Jose`s deep convection displays a tightly curved band that wraps at
least twelve-tenths around the center. Dvorak intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB have increased accordingly. Thus, maximum
sustained winds are analyzed for Jose at 75 kt, very close to that
from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique.
Jose is likely to continue developing during the next day or two
while the vertical shear is low, the SSTs are around 29C, and the
mid-level humidity is moist. However, beginning in two to three
days, the outflow from large, strong hurricane Irma to Jose`s west
should start inducing more shear, inducing a steady weakening
by days four and five. The official intensity forecast is based upon
a blend of the LGEM, HWRF, and COAMPS models. Jose`s anticipated
peak intensity of 105 kt is slightly higher than the previous
advisory, while days four and five show a more quickly weakening
system at that time.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 15 kt, as
it is being advected along the south side of the deep-layer Bermuda
high. This motion should continue for the next couple of days.
During days three to five, Jose should bend toward the northwest as
it moves around the periphery of the Bermuda high. The official
track forecast is based upon the very tightly clustered guidance
(and their consensus technique - TVCN), which is somewhat west of
the previous advisory.
If future guidance further shifts westward, then tropical storm or
hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Leeward
Islands on Thursday.
Jose is a small hurricane with tropical-storm-force winds extending
out at most 70 nm from the center, based upon NDBC Buoy 41041 and
the 0006Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass. The official size foreast -
based upon the RVCN consensus - suggests a gradual increase in size
for the next three days. Interestingly, buoy 41041 measured a
peak 1-minute wind (at 5 m anemometer height) of 61 kt around 22Z.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 14.4N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.9N 49.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 16.1N 55.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 19.3N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 22.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W 60 KT 70 MPH