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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 34 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#901889 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 07.Sep.2017)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Katia this
evening and found flight level winds of 80 kt and SFMR values
around 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is
nudged upward to 75 kt. Satellite images also show that Katia is
getting better organized, with a ragged eye becoming apparent
during the last hour or so. Additional strengthening is possible,
and Katia could be near major hurricane strength before it makes
landfall by Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening
is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged
terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains shortly after 48 hours.

Katia has now begun the expected slow west-southwest motion. A
continued slow west-southwestward motion is expected until the
system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one and near the consensus models.

In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains
associated with Katia is forecast to affect eastern Mexico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.5N 95.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.3N 95.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 20.8N 96.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 19.3N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi