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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#902054 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 08.Sep.2017)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017


Satellite imagery shows Katia has become much less organized over
the past several hours with a shrinking area of warming cloud tops.
The weakening of Katia could be due to drier air wrapping around the
cyclone`s western side, which was noted in satellite-based layered
precipitable water products. Reconnaissance aircraft has reported
a significant northeast tilt of the circulation with height, a
sign of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial wind speed
has been decreased to 65 knots based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB and is close to SFMR wind observations
from Air Force reconnasissance aircraft currently sampling the
storm.

Katia is currently making landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico.
Rapid weakening is expected from here on out, and Katia is forecast
to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains
on Saturday. Katia has made a turn to the west-southwest at 6 kt.
The official track forecast remains consistent with the previous
advisory. The weakening hurricane is expected to continue moving
west-southwest until dissipation.

Very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect
eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.6N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.2N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 19.7N 98.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Lamers