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| #902054 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Satellite imagery shows Katia has become much less organized over the past several hours with a shrinking area of warming cloud tops. The weakening of Katia could be due to drier air wrapping around the cyclone`s western side, which was noted in satellite-based layered precipitable water products. Reconnaissance aircraft has reported a significant northeast tilt of the circulation with height, a sign of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial wind speed has been decreased to 65 knots based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and is close to SFMR wind observations from Air Force reconnasissance aircraft currently sampling the storm. Katia is currently making landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected from here on out, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains on Saturday. Katia has made a turn to the west-southwest at 6 kt. The official track forecast remains consistent with the previous advisory. The weakening hurricane is expected to continue moving west-southwest until dissipation. Very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.6N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.2N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 19.7N 98.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Lamers |
