|#902055 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 08.Sep.2017)|
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER...
...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of
the northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur overnight and on Saturday. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible
within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by
Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by
Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin
Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing
flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple
of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.