|#902889 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 12.Sep.2017)|
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017
Jose`s convective cloud mass has evolved from a rather shapeless
one into a comma-type pattern today. This increased organization
suggests that the cyclone is at least holding its own in terms of
intensity. The advisory intensity of 65 kt is in agreement with a
Dvorak T-number from TAFB and a Current Intensity number from SAB.
The dynamical guidance shows moderate to strong shear, from varying
directions, over Jose throughout the forecast period. The consensus
of the intensity models shows little change in strength for the
next 5 days, and so does the official forecast. This is a slight
change from the previous forecast which called for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm within a day or so. Given the current trend
toward better organization, however, Jose could easily intensify
more than shown here.
A slight repositioning of the working best track was done using a
center fix from an excellent Windsat image from earlier today. The
initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt. The
GFS and ECMWF global models show a mid-level ridge building west,
then north, and then east-northeast of Jose over the next few days.
As a result, it is expected that the system will execute an
anticyclonic loop over the next 72 hours or so. Later in the
forecast period, Jose is forecast to turn northward and
north-northeastward while moving through a break in the ridge.
For unknown reasons, the U.K. Met. Office model track continues to
be well west and south of the other guidance. The official
forecast track favors the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, but does
not go as far to the north-northeast as the ECMWF near the end of
the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 27.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 27.1N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.3N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH