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W at 5 mph
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#902919 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 12.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

Recent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy
structure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear. The hurricane has
a well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a
well-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the
northwest side. Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and
SAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn`t be
surprising if the winds were a little stronger than that. Jose
could strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it
remains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF
and HCCA support that thinking. After 24 hours, the shear is
expected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions,
which are less likely to support intensification. Therefore, the
NHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus
(IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5.
The ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day
5, so it`s possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward
the end of the forecast period.

The microwave data indicated that Jose`s center is a little more
southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion
estimate is now 125/8 kt. Jose is being pushed southeastward on
the back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will
soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to
its north. As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise
loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and
northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge.
Only the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a
persistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this
time. The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it`s only a bit
southwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the
updated initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 26.5N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 25.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 27.3N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 30.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 32.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg