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#903232 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 15.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a
hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR
values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening
is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains
over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday,
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual
cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some
weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a
fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official
forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days,
then is blended downward to the latest model consensus.

Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The
hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by
Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is
then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves
along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in
relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is
slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its
ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is
nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the
slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous
forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the
next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming
rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North
Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed
for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake