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#903359 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 16.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through
Jose`s center and found that the central pressure has dropped to
973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an
outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed
SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose`s initial intensity
is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite
of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the
wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.

The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the
mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing
through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or
360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during
the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial
position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It
should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie
west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility
that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the
official forecast.

Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the
shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight
strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30
kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The
hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72
hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves
eastward away from New England.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 28.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg