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#903386 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 16.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Jose`s cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous
advisory. The center is embedded within a fairly symmetric CDO but
deep convection and the overall cloud shield is elongated
northeastward due to some westerly shear. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS range from 60 kt
to 77 kt. Since the earlier aircraft data suggest that Jose`s
intensity was near the midpoint of this range, a 70-kt initial
wind speed is maintained for this advisory.

The satellite fixes are little to the east of the previously
estimated positions, but given the westerly shear the surface
center is likely located a little west of these, resulting in
an initial motion estimate of 360/5 kt. Jose is forecast to move
northward at a slightly faster pace around the western portion of
a subtropical ridge over the next few days. After that time, Jose
is predicted to turn northeastward, then eastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerly flow. The 18Z GFS has trended a bit slower
at days 4 and 5, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The ECMWF and UKMET models remain to the west of the
official forecast and it is still possible that Jose will track
somewhat closer to the U.S. east coast than indicated here.

Jose still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen before
westerly shear increases, however, most of the intensity guidance
now calls for gradual weakening to begin within 12-24 hours.
Decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 hours should cause an
additional decrease in intensity later in the period. The NHC
intensity prediction is near the higher statistical guidance during
the first couple of days, and near the global model guidance later
in the period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 29.2N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 31.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 32.9N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 34.4N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 37.7N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 40.2N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown