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#903451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 17.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
morning and found flight-level winds of 86 kt, SFMR surface
winds of 89 kt, and a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Based on these
data, the initial wind speed is raised to 80 kt for this advisory.
Even though the winds are stronger than earlier, the hurricane does
not have an improved appearance in satellite images. In fact, the
Air Force meteorologist onboard the aircraft mentioned that the
inner core of Jose is asymmetric and the overall appearance is
lopsided.

Jose is expected to be in an environment of strong southwesterly
wind shear while it is over the warm Gulf Stream waters during the
next couple of days. Although the shear is forecast to lessen
beyond that time, the hurricane will likely have crossed the north
wall of the Gulf Stream by then, where the waters are much cooler.
These environmental conditions favor a slow weakening trend during
the next several days, and that is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast. It should be noted, however, that despite the expected
weakening, the models suggest that Jose`s outer wind field will
expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into
the mid-latitudes.

The hurricane is moving northward at 8 kt on the west side of a
subtropical ridge. This motion is expected to continue for 2 to 3
days while the steering pattern persists. Thereafter, a trough
currently over central Canada is expected to move eastward and
should cause Jose to turn to the northeast and east at a slow
forward speed in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous one,
mainly because of the more westward initial position.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Virginia northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days. Tropical storm watches could be
required for a portion of this area later today.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 31.0N 71.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 71.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 33.6N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 35.2N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 39.6N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 39.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi