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| #903520 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical cyclone. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous. The vertical shear is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24 hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. As a result of the shear and nearby dry air, weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday night, if not sooner. The global models show the circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast. Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
