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#903596 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 18.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical
characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric
with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to
the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of
78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt.

Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24
hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong
south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected
during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a
progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should
cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition,
which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term
to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has
been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward
speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently
over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in
the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out,
leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to
drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this
prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in
effect.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 33.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 35.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 38.2N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 39.4N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1200Z 39.1N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1200Z 38.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi