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| #903674 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven`t changed much since the last flight, with similar pressure values and flight-level winds. The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance with the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR was a bit lower. Satellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical, with an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some hybrid characteristics. Jose should eventually weaken in a day or so as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a more stable environment. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should become post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast intensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the predicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is anticipated. The center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due to a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving toward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. All of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause tropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and southwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern United States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate flooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 35.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 36.2N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 39.4N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0000Z 38.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake |
