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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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#903708 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 19.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is
persisting near the center of Jose. While it doesn`t look
particularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts
connected to the center and the system is definitely warm core.
Thus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed
remains 65 kt based on the previous reconnaissance mission.
Some weakening is likely to begin within 24 hours due to Jose
moving over colder waters. Continued weakening is in the forecast
due to the marginal water temperatures, although the system could
eventually move over the warm Gulf Stream again if it takes a
southward turn in the right spot. Thus, the intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one through 72 hours, then is
leveled off at 45 kt to account for the warmer water possibility.

Jose continues to move erratically northward, with the center
wobbling due to the convective bursts. The hurricane should turn
toward the northeast and east over the next two days as it moves
around a ridge over the western Atlantic. After that point, the
forecast becomes more uncertain, with some models curving the system
south and west under a building high over the northeastern United
States, and others drifting the cyclone eastward just out of the
reach of the ridge. With the guidance shifting eastward on this
cycle, the official forecast will follow the trend, although not
shift as strongly to the east since it wouldn`t take a very large
track error to either catch or miss that ridge.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha`s Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Elsewhere, Jose is expected
to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the
mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 36.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 37.1N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 38.5N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 39.6N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 39.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0600Z 38.7N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0600Z 38.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake