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| #904143 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 22.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 69 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 The large circulation of Jose has not changed much during the past several hours, with a small burst of moderate-to-deep convection rotating around the center. Satellite classifications support reducing the winds to 40 kt for this advisory. Surface observations are still showing sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the warning areas, so advisories will be maintained on Jose. These winds should diminish this afternoon or evening according to all of the model guidance as Jose gradually weakens. The intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, showing a slow decay of the winds over cold waters, which is well supported by the latest global model guidance. Jose has been erratically moving during the past 24 hours, with a southwestward drift most recently noted. The system is expected to stay trapped in light steering flow and move little for the next couple of days, then take a more westward turn by day 3 as the circulation of Maria and a ridge over the northeastern United States steer the weak cyclone. However, all models suggest it will be quite weak by day 3 and open up into a trough on day 4. Only small changes were made to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring over portions of extreme southeastern New England. These conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.5N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/0000Z 39.4N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/1200Z 39.3N 69.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 38.9N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 38.8N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
