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| #904498 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 25.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 Lee continues to hold steady in intensity. The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains quite distinct, and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold. Since the Dvorak classifications remain the same as earlier, the initial intensity is again held at 80 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective numbers. It is interesting to note that Lee remains a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center. Lee remains in a favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening, but SSTs beneath the cyclone are marginal, in part due to the hurricane moving over its own cool wake. Lee is expected to move over slightly warmer waters in a day or so, and that could allow the system to strengthen a little. Later in the forecast period, drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause weakening. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The trough that had been steering Lee to the east or southeast much of the day on Sunday has now bypassed the system leaving Lee in weak steering currents. A ridge is expected to build to the north of the hurricane by tonight, and that should cause the system to begin moving west-southwestward or westward. By mid-week, a trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and it should cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.1N 49.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 30.9N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 30.7N 50.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 30.8N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 31.2N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 32.7N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 42.5N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
