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#904603 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 25.Sep.2017)

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

The satellite presentation of Lee has improved over the past 6
hours. Cloud tops have cooled and the eye has become more distinct.
Dvorak intensity estimates around 0000 UTC from TAFB and the
UW-CIMSS ADT were higher than the last advisory, and the intensity
estimate from the ADT has gone up even more since then. The initial
intensity has been increased only slightly to 80 kt, but it is
possible that Lee is a little stronger than that.

Lee appears to have moved out of the moderate shear zone associated
with an upper-level trough, and is accelerating away from any cold
water it may have previously upwelled. Further intensification in
the short term seems likely, and this is supported by all of the
intensity guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little
higher than the previous forecast, and lies between the higher
dynamical models (HWRF, HMON), and the lower statistical models
(SHIPS, LGEM). After about 36 hours, a sharp increase in northerly
shear associated with the outflow from Maria and an approaching
mid-latitude trough should cause Lee to weaken. Given the small
size of Lee, it is possible that weakening could occur even faster
than indicated in the official forecast.

Lee has continued to move toward the west-southwest, and the initial
motion estimate is 240/7 kt. There is no change to the forecast
reasoning, and Lee is expected to move generally westward for the
next 36 hours, along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. After
that time, a combination of Maria and the aforementioned trough
should cause Lee to recurve and rapidly accelerate toward the
northeast. Since Lee is moving a little faster than previously
forecast, the NHC forecast has been adjusted westward for the first
36 hours of the forecast, but is generally close to the previous
forecast track after that. Lee should be extratropical by no later
than day 5, and some of the models indicate that it will be absorbed
within a frontal boundary sooner than that.


INIT 26/0300Z 30.2N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.2N 52.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 30.5N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 31.0N 55.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 35.3N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Zelinsky