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| #904882 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 27.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 Although Lee remains an impressive hurricane, the associated cloud pattern is not as well organized as it was earlier today. The eye has become slightly less distinct and there have been occasional dry slots in the deep convection surrounding the center. As a result, the Dvorak estimates are a little lower, and a blend of the numbers from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 95 kt. Lee is forecast to move into progressively more hostile conditions of stronger shear and cooler waters during the next few days. Therefore, steady weakening is expected, and Lee should lose its tropical characteristics in 2 to 3 days when it is forecast to be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an environment of about 30 kt of westerly shear. The global models show the post-tropical low dissipating in a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the ICON and HCCA consensus aids. Lee continues to turn to the right, and the initial motion is now 345/6 kt. A northward motion is expected overnight and early on Thursday when Lee moves along the western periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, Lee is expected to accelerate to the northeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in fast mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 31.7N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 33.2N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 35.7N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 38.9N 51.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 42.5N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 49.7N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
