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| #904887 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 27.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Maria continues to have convective bands over the eastern and northeastern portions of its circulation, with drier air inhibiting convection over much of its western semicircle. Dvorak intensity estimates are below hurricane strength, but this has been the case for the last couple of days, where aircraft observations showed the system stronger than indicated by the satellite-based estimates. Since the cloud pattern has not deteriorated significantly from earlier today, Maria is kept as a hurricane for now. Only gradual weakening is expected since SSTs do not cool much until after 48 hours, and baroclinic processes may help maintain intensity for another day or so thereafter. Later in the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the far northeastern north Atlantic. The 72- and 96-hour forecast positions, intensity, and wind radii were coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Maria is gradually turning to the right as it nears the mid-latitude westerlies, and the motion estimate is now 040/6 kt. Over the next few days, the cyclone should accelerate eastward to east-northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough moving through the northeastern United Sates and off the northeast United States coast. There continues to be significant along-track, i.e. speed, differences between the ECMWF and GFS models later in the period, and the official forecast is nearly an average of these 2 model tracks. This is also close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 36.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 36.9N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 39.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 44.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 51.0N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
