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#905012 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 28.Sep.2017)
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the
northern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center
has become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the
cloud canopy. A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of
70 kt. Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and
decreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the
next 36 hours. Afterward, the global models indicate that the
system will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over the
northern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM
models.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.
The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward
the northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow
until dissipation occurs in 48 hours. The NHC forecast follows the
TVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically
an update of the previous track forecast.

Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC
ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 36.3N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 39.1N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 43.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 47.6N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts