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| #905012 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 28.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the northern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center has become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the cloud canopy. A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak satellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of 70 kt. Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the next 36 hours. Afterward, the global models indicate that the system will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over the northern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM models. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt. The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward the northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow until dissipation occurs in 48 hours. The NHC forecast follows the TVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically an update of the previous track forecast. Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 36.3N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 39.1N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 43.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 47.6N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
