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| #905072 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 29.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and the estimated motion is now 045/27 kt. Due to continued strong northerly shear, the low-level center of Lee is exposed and deep convection is confined to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone. No new ASCAT data has been available since yesterday evening, but some weakening since the last advisory is assumed, given the limited extent of convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, making Lee a tropical storm. Lee is crossing a tight SST gradient north of the Gulf Stream, and will be passing over SSTs below 23 deg C within the next couple of hours. The cold SSTs, plus continued high shear, should cause the circulation of Lee to continue to spin down over the next day or two, while the cyclone continues to accelerate toward the northeast. Some of Lee's spin-down will likely be offset by the increasing forward speed of the cyclone, limiting how much the wind speed can decrease, but the dynamical models still forecast that Lee will open up into a trough in 24 to 36 h. Very little change has been made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, which remain close to the track and intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 40.1N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 43.1N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 47.6N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
