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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#905072 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 29.Sep.2017)
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

Lee continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and the estimated
motion is now 045/27 kt. Due to continued strong northerly shear,
the low-level center of Lee is exposed and deep convection is
confined to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone. No new ASCAT
data has been available since yesterday evening, but some weakening
since the last advisory is assumed, given the limited extent of
convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, making
Lee a tropical storm.

Lee is crossing a tight SST gradient north of the Gulf Stream, and
will be passing over SSTs below 23 deg C within the next couple of
hours. The cold SSTs, plus continued high shear, should cause the
circulation of Lee to continue to spin down over the next day or
two, while the cyclone continues to accelerate toward the northeast.
Some of Lee's spin-down will likely be offset by the increasing
forward speed of the cyclone, limiting how much the wind speed can
decrease, but the dynamical models still forecast that Lee will open
up into a trough in 24 to 36 h. Very little change has been made to
the NHC track or intensity forecasts, which remain close to the
track and intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 40.1N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 43.1N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 47.6N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky