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#905140 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 29.Sep.2017)

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

Lee has been devoid of deep convection for the past 6 hours due to
strong northwesterly vertical wind shear and sea-surface
temperatures near 20 deg C. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 50 kt based on a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of 51 kt and
typical decay rate for tropical cyclones at that latitude. Lee is
forecast to become an extratropical low in the next 6-12 h due to
aforementioned strong shear and cold ocean temperatures. However,
due to a continued increase in forward speed, little change in
strength is expected until dissipation occurs in 12-24 hours
despite the lack of any significant convection with the system.

Lee has continued to accelerate toward the northeast, and the
initial motion estimate is now 060/36 kt. For the next day or so,
Lee will remain embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead
of a mid-/upper-level trough, and continue to accelerate toward the
northeast. Since the models remain tightly clustered, no change was
made to the previous forecast track.


INIT 30/0300Z 44.3N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 47.8N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Stewart