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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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#905768 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 05.Oct.2017)
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch westward
along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 83.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north-
northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin
later today and continue through Friday night. On the forecast
track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is
expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could strengthen to a tropical storm before
it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua today. Strengthening
is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras late today and tonight.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the
watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown