|#905939 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 AM 06.Oct.2017)|
Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Nate lacks an inner wind core at the present time,
with the maximum winds located about 50 n mi from the center. The
central pressure is fluctuating near 996 mb, and the aircraft-
reported winds support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This is in
good agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB. Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Nate
has been increasing during the past several hours, and that the
storm has good outflow in the western semicircle.
The center has moved generally northward during the past 12 hr.
However, the latest recon fixes and satellite imagery suggest that a
north-northwestward motion is resuming at about 18 kt. Nate is
between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the western
Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high
pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should steer
the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 36 h or so.
After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes
around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. While the guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, there has been a rightward shift to the latest
guidance, likely due to the recent northward motion. The new
forecast track is thus also shifted to the east of the previous
forecast, and it now calls for the center of Nate to pass near or
over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h,
followed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast between 36-48 h.
The new track is in the center of the guidance envelope in good
agreement with the various consensus models.
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening up to landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as
a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the
previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
It should be noted that the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS
model continues to indicate an above normal chance of rapid
intensification. However, the current structure of the cyclone does
not favor rapid development.
1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula later today bringing direct impacts from wind,
storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a
hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and
life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.
2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning has been issued
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border.
Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions
given by local officials.
3. A hurricane warning has been has been issued for portions of the
northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these
4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this
weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these
5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions
of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Belize through tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 18.7N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 21.3N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.8N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 28.1N 89.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 31.1N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 37.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 42.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW