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#Kirk #TD11 #98L Future #90L These are all systems worth keeping close track of into next week. Several Forecast Lounges up for model talk.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Florence) , Major: 367 (Maria) Florida - Any: 377 (Irma) Major: 377 (Irma)
13.6N 53.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Nw at 3 mph
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8.6N 24.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Wnw at 15 mph
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#909416 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 06.Nov.2017)

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017
500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

The depression has changed little in structure during the past
several hours. The low-level center remains exposed to the west of
the main area of deep convection due to the influence of westerly
shear and dry air. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification of 2.0/30 kt from

Satellite fixes indicate that the system has been moving slowly and
erratically during the past 6 to 12 hours. Smoothing through the
wobbles yields an initial motion of 020/5 kt. The combined
influences of a mid-level ridge to the east of the depression and a
shortwave trough to its west should cause the system to move
progressively faster toward the north or north-northeast during the
next couple of days. Beyond that time, an even faster northeastward
motion is expected when the system becomes embedded in the mid-
latitude westerlies. The latest track guidance is notably slower
than the previous cycles, and the new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction.

The cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
westerly shear while it moves toward cooler waters. Although these
conditions typically would not favor strengthening, the models do
show the depression deepening during the next couple of days, likely
due to some baroclinic forcing and the expected increase in forward
speed of the system. The cyclone will likely complete extratropical
transition Wednesday night or early Thursday when it merges with a
cold front. Overall the intensity guidance has changed little this
cycle, and no change was made to the previous NHC intensity


INIT 06/2100Z 29.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi