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| #927634 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 29.May.2018) TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018 Radar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the associated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar data. During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained winds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 25 kt. Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 h or less. The low is expected to dissipate completely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests this could occur earlier. Alberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast over the next couple of days. After that, the system should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance. This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Alberto. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee today. 2. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through today. 3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 32.3N 86.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1800Z 34.1N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 36.8N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 39.8N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 43.1N 85.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 49.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
