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| #931885 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:38 AM 07.Jul.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 50.3W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 50.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, but recent satellite images suggest that Beryl is becoming less organized. If this trend continues, then Beryl may be downgraded to a tropical storm later this morning. Due to Beryl`s small size, short-term changes in intensity, up or down, could continue to occur over the next day or two, and Beryl could still be near hurricane strength as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday. Beryl is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
