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| #932335 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 10.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer water. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were 90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt. Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt. The initial motion remains 050/9. Chris is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United states. The combination of these features should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster than the previous forecast. The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely slow the intensification rate. Otherwise, conditions appear favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream. Extratropical transition should begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland. After that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses the North Atlantic. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends, and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h based on the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 34.2N 71.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 35.8N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 38.8N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 42.8N 59.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 46.6N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 53.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z 61.5N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
