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#Kirk #TD11 #98L Future #90L These are all systems worth keeping close track of into next week. Several Forecast Lounges up for model talk.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Florence) , Major: 367 (Maria) Florida - Any: 377 (Irma) Major: 377 (Irma)
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#932442 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 11.Jul.2018)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

Chris is quickly unraveling, with its eye completely disintegrating
a few hours ago and the convective pattern showing the hallmarks of
the onset of extratropical transition. Earlier microwave data
actually showed that the hurricane had a concentric eyewall
structure, but the mid-level eye was already being stripped away
from the low-level center due to increasing southwesterly shear.
Chris`s initial intensity is set at 75 kt based on a blend of
final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is accelerating toward the northeast with an initial
motion of 050/25 kt, and the acceleration is expected to continue
for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves ahead of a deep-layer
trough located over eastern Canada. After 48 hours, Chris is
forecast to slow down to the south of Iceland when it interacts
with another deep-layer low. The track guidance is tightly
clustered very close to the previous official forecast during
the first 72 hours, with only a little more model spread and
deviation from the previous forecast at 96 hours. Therefore, the
only change to the updated NHC track forecast is to slow down the
storm a little on day 4 while it`s located south of Iceland. Chris
may still exist on day 5, but there`s too much uncertainty among
the models to extend the official forecast at this point.

Chris is currently moving over a few warm eddies along the Gulf
Stream, but the hurricane`s center will move across the North Wall
within the next 6 hours and head toward much colder waters.
Vertical shear will also be increasing further over the next 24
hours, and Chris is expected to be fully embedded within a frontal
zone within 18-24 hours. The NHC official forecast calls for Chris
to complete extratropical transition just before the center reaches
extreme southeastern Newfoundland within 24 hours, and the cyclone`s
intensity should gradually decrease while it moves across the North
Atlantic. The intensity forecast is close to the tropical model
guidance for the first 12-24 hours but then sides closer to the GFS
and ECMWF guidance during the remainder of the forecast.

Chris`s wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on a 0034 UTC
ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 39.6N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 42.6N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 46.9N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1200Z 50.2N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0000Z 53.1N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0000Z 59.6N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0000Z 62.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg