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| #935387 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 07.Aug.2018) TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone. Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so. Debby is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355 degrees at 13 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24 hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough, which will eventually absorb Debby. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 39.7N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 41.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 42.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 44.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
