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| #935416 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 07.Aug.2018) TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018 A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a subtropical cyclone. Most of the convection is in a ragged band well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB. The global models are in good agreement that the system will open up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure system within 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt. Debby is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 40.3N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 41.2N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 43.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
