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| #936523 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 18.Aug.2018) TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce 35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical cyclone`s circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 51.9N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
