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| #939563 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 11.Sep.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 51.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 51.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 53.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 56.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.0N 59.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 62.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
