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| #940094 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 14.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 There has been little change in the convective organization of Joyce overnight. The system continues to produce bands of convection over the northeastern portion of the circulation, but the center remains exposed due to shear. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent TAFB satellite estimate. Joyce is still moving southwestward or 210 degrees at 7 kt. Joyce is being steered in that direction around the larger circulation of Helene to its east-southeast. Once Helene passes east-northeast of Joyce later today, Joyce should turn eastward, then begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the weekend. The global models have trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction as well. Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should prevent Joyce from strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for little change in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the shear increases further. Both the GFS and ECMWF dissipate Joyce by day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become post-tropical before that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.1N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 31.7N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 32.7N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 34.0N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 36.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
