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| #940494 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 15.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 Joyce is a highly sheared cyclone with the low-level center well separated from the convection. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity has been generously set at 35 kt. The shear is expected to remain belligerently high and the ocean along the forecast track is cooler. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for additional weakening, and then dissipation beyond 3 days if not sooner. Joyce continues to move eastward at about 15 kt embedded within the fast mid-latitude flow. The system should decrease its forward speed as it weakens and become a shallow cyclone. It should then turn east-southeast and even southward steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 33.4N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 34.5N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 34.5N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.0N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
