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#941396 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 22.Sep.2018)

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

It appears that the depression`s best day is behind it, as the
cloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level
center is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud
tops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to
the east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by
UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
consistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the
strong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be
moving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should
gradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and
dissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either
or both of these occurred sooner.

The center of the depression hasn`t moved much during the past few
hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The
weakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward
by a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the
previous one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system
will gain prior to dissipation.


INIT 22/1500Z 13.2N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.0N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 56.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brennan