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| #942512 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 30.Sep.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 Leslie has changed little in organization over the past few hours, with the convective burst previously in the southeastern quadrant now in the northeastern quadrant. Recent scatterometer data indicates that the current intensity is 45 kt, with those winds occurring in the northeastern semicircle. The scatterometer data also suggests that the radii of tropical-storm force winds has decreased a little. While Leslie continues to be affected by westerly shear, the global models show the upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a day. This, combined with slightly warmer SSTs along the forecast track should allow Leslie to gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling, and that should cause at least a little weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies above the forecast of the regional hurricane models and below the forecast of the statistical-dynamical models. The initial motion is 250/5. Leslie is forecast to remain in weak steering currents for the next 72 h, with a southwestward to southward drift expected. Thereafter, a shortwave trough moving southward to the west of Leslie should cause a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast and an increase in forward speed. There are no important changes to the guidance or to the forecast track, and the bottom line remains that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next several days. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period due to Leslie`s slow motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 33.3N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 33.0N 54.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 32.4N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 31.5N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 30.8N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 34.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 37.0N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
