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| #942702 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 02.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to have a ragged banded eye feature with multiple mesovortices within it. Deep convection is most organized in a curved band that currently wraps from the northeast to southwest quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates. Although the storm has not strengthened much during the past day or so, it still has an opportunity to intensify while it moves over slightly higher SSTs and remains in favorable atmospheric conditions during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, slow weakening seems likely as Leslie heads over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into a slightly drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast lies between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and COAMPS-TC models that keep Leslie below hurricane strength. The tropical storm continues to lose latitude, with the latest initial motion estimate being 215/7. A continued slow south to south-southwest motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a mid-level high. After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause Leslie to move northward to north-northeastward late this week. By the weekend, the models suggest that Leslie should turn eastward when it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to come into better agreement with the latest models. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 30.9N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
