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#943123 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 05.Oct.2018)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

Leslie`s cloud pattern consists of a small ring of shallow to
moderate convection embedded within a large and vigorous
circulation. Dvorak classifications allow me to keep the same
intensity, and in fact, ASCAT data just came in with a few 50-kt
wind vectors. So the initial intensity remains at 50 kt in this
advisory. Leslie will not encounter any hostile shear, but the
cyclone will move over a few patches of warm and cool waters. The
guidance shows some minor fluctuations in the cyclone intensity,
most likely due to the aforementioned SST variations along the
track, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 6 kt.
The cyclone is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow,
which is being modulated by passing shortwaves. This flow pattern
is expected to persist and should steer Leslie eastward and
east-southeastward through the next 5 days. Although the track
guidance is not as clustered as in previous days, most of the models
agree with the eastward motion of the cyclone, but vary in speed. It
appears that stubborn Leslie will be with us for several more days.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 36.6N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 37.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 36.5N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 36.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 34.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 31.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila