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#943266 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 AM 07.Oct.2018)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 87.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Belize indicated that the
low pressure system was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude
87.1 West. The low has been meandering just off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula during the past few hours, but its longer-term
motion is toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The low is
expected to turn northward later today, with that motion continuing
for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the
tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then
move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
The low is expected to become a tropical depression later today and
a tropical storm by tonight. A reconnaissance plane will
investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and on Monday.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.
A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along
the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in
Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg